Open Design DCF Valuation Skills Guide

Skill Overview

The DCF Valuation skill generates a complete discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation report and estimates intrinsic value per share. The report documents all assumptions and clearly distinguishes sourced facts from analyst judgment. The output is a Markdown file, saved to finance/<company-or-ticker>-dcf.md. It includes: query summary, valuation summary, data coverage, key inputs, five-year forecast, sensitivity analysis, limitations statement, source list.

Trigger Keywords

dcf, discounted cash flow, intrinsic value, fair value, price target, undervalued, overvalued, valuation, intrinsic value

When to Use

Intrinsic value estimation for public companies
Price target analysis
Determining whether a stock is undervalued/overvalued
Valuation reference before investment decisions
Financial modeling reports

How to Use

Natural Language Triggers

Help me calculate the intrinsic value of AAPL
Perform a DCF valuation analysis
Is this stock undervalued?

Specifying a Skill

Use the dcf-valuation skill to analyze Tesla's fair value

Standard Workflow

Identify the company: name, ticker, reporting currency, fiscal year, current valuation question
Collect/derive core inputs:
- 3-5 years of revenue, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, free cash flow
- Latest cash, debt, non-controlling interests, diluted shares
- Current share price and market capitalization (if available)
- Revenue growth, FCF margin, ROIC, debt-to-equity ratio, industry
When data is incomplete: first create an assumptions table, labeling each row as sourced / derived / user-provided / assumption
Estimate FCF growth: prefer historical FCF CAGR; cross-check revenue growth, margins, analyst forecasts. Cap perpetual growth at 15% (unless the user provides a higher assumption)
Estimate the discount rate: use references/sector-wacc.md for starting ranges, and adjust based on leverage, size, geography, cyclicality, concentration, and moat
Build the DCF: 5-year FCF forecast → Gordon Growth terminal value (default 2.5%) → discount → subtract net debt → divide by shares outstanding
Sensitivity analysis: 3×3 matrix (WACC ±1% vs. terminal growth 2.0%/2.5%/3.0%)
Validate: compare against observed EV, check terminal value as a percentage of total EV, cross-check FCF multiples

Output Format

Markdown file, saved to finance/<safe-company-or-ticker>-dcf.md. Use structured tables to present inputs, forecasts, and sensitivity matrices. Clearly label the source type of each data point.

Self-Review Checklist

Data must not be fabricated (revenue, FCF, debt, share count, etc. must be sourced or labeled as an assumption)
Assumptions table clearly labels source types
Sensitivity analysis uses a 3×3 matrix
Terminal value as a percentage of total EV is reasonable
Conclusion mentions the report path so users can easily reuse it

Practical Examples

Example 1: AAPL Valuation

User: "Help me calculate how much Apple is worth using DCF"

Generated:

Report saved to finance/AAPL-dcf.md
Collect FCF data for the last 5 years
WACC 8.5%, terminal growth 2.5%
Fair value versus current share price, upside/downside percentage
3×3 sensitivity matrix

Example 2: SaaS Company

User: "Help me conduct an intrinsic value analysis for Salesforce"